"We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives." - The Amazing Criswell

By far, my favorite example of "go-to" journalism is the prediction piece (narrowly edging out the Thanksgiving-themed "Turkeys of the Year" and its cousin, the Yuletide "Naughty/Nice" list). At the end of every calendar year, journalists and commentators of various industries bang out 500 words of both bold and vague prophecies, all to inform the reader of the things to come in the new year.

BusinessWeek's Media Predictions for 2009 was the first such piece to catch my eye this year, and I'd like to share some of media critic Jon Fine's feckless forecasts.

Regarding media ad spending: It gets much worse before it gets better.
Regarding media ownership: Media ownership consolidates.
Regarding online advertising: Online advertising demonstrates it isn't immune to gravity.

And some of his gutsy guesses:

Radio rolls out a sort of hipster-lite format aimed at urban thirty- and forty-somethings consumed by jobs and parenting. It draws surprisingly good ratings in a few markets. (JC- Huh?)
New York Times Co. sells About.com to buy time for its flagship paper. (JC- Gawker spread that rumor around last month.)

Of course, Mr. Fine has probably forgotten more about media than I have ever known, so I am in no position to criticize. But, he was the man who claimed in his 2008 prediction column that "Amazon's Kindle e-book reader is stillborn."

Allow me debunk with a quote directly from Amazon's Kindle order page:

Due to heavy customer demand, Kindle is sold out. Please ORDER KINDLE NOW to reserve your place in line. We prioritize orders on a first come, first served basis. This item will arrive after December 24. Note that Kindles cannot currently be sold or shipped to customers living outside of the U.S.

Not to be outdone, another BusinessWeek writer opined two years ago in Seven Internet Prediction for 2007, "Facebook's efforts to expand beyond students and recent graduates will be largely unsuccessful. Moreover, the company won't sell itself to a large Internet company, especially if its asking price is $8 billion or more."

Just for the record, Facebook has more than 100 million active users, and as I stated in a previous blog post: judging by Microsoft's $240 million Facebook investment, Facebook is valued at about $15 billion.

All of this is to suggest that BusinessWeek an Criswell are in the same business. In Tim Burton's Ed Wood, Criswell claims, "If you look good, and you talk well, people will swallow anything."